Abstract
In this paper, we examine the evolution of the S&P500 returns volatility around market crashes using a Markov-Switching model. We find that volatility typically switches into the high volatility state well before a crash and remains in the high state for a considerable period of time after the crash. These results do not support the view that crashes are due to the resolution of uncertainty (e.g. Romer, 1993), but are consistent with the model in Frankel (2008) where the adaptive forecasts of volatility by uniformed traders result in a crash.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Number of pages | 21 |
| Publication status | Published - Nov 2009 |
UN SDGs
This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
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SDG 2 Zero Hunger -
SDG 8 Decent Work and Economic Growth
Fields of science
- 405002 Agricultural economics
- 502 Economics
- 502001 Labour market policy
- 502002 Labour economics
- 502003 Foreign trade
- 502009 Corporate finance
- 502010 Public finance
- 502012 Industrial management
- 502013 Industrial economics
- 502018 Macroeconomics
- 502020 Market research
- 502021 Microeconomics
- 502025 Econometrics
- 502027 Political economy
- 502039 Structural policy
- 502042 Environmental economics
- 502046 Economic policy
- 502047 Economic theory
- 504014 Gender studies
- 506004 European integration
- 507016 Regional economy
- 303010 Health economics
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