To build or not to build? Sustainability narratives between growth-oriented ‘eco-markets’ and regulative ‘sufficiency’ in Germany's heat transition

Narratives play a significant role in shaping sustainability transitions. The amendment to the German Building Energy Act (Gebaudeenergiegesetz ¨ ) in 2023, aiming at stricter emission regulations for heating appliances, provides a striking example: its original version was weakened following a strong counter-campaign led by conservative and right-wing political actors. In media debates, misinformation and populist narratives of ‘the people’ affected by the GEG and a ‘green elite’ were used to delegitimize the amendment. However, it remains unclear if affected stakeholders share these narratives and what their visions of sustainability in heating and housing transitions entail. We employed semi-structured interviews to gain insights from 23 expert practitioners across 6 key stakeholder groups affected by the GEG. Content and narrative analysis reveal that sustainability as such is not directly questioned. Instead, two distinct narratives emerge: First, a Sustainable Markets Narrative, predominantly promoted by entrepreneurial actors, emphasising the need for new construction, innovation through markets, eco-efficiency, and market-compatible policies. Second, a Sufficiency Narrative, predominantly supported by Non-Governmental Organisations and administrative actors, that relies on policy mixes, considers rethinking ownership structures, and prioritises the conversion of existing buildings over new construction. However, this narrative is much less common and lacks positive, guiding imaginaries. To position policy proposals on a spectrum from weak to strong sufficiency, we referenced the Energy Sufficiency Policy Database. We
find consensus across stakeholders regarding weak approaches such as senior-friendly shared housing or energy consultancy. Regulatory policies like rent caps are absent, indicating a notable science-stakeholder gap regarding stronger sufficiency proposals.