Abstract
The outcome of the Brexit referendum in June 2016 was largely unanticipated. Even after the "Leave" vote, surprises regarding the withdrawal process affected the UK economy. We draw on an official list of political events published by the House of Commons Library and daily data on asset prices and economic policy uncertainty to construct a novel instrument for Brexit surprises. Including a monthly aggregate of this instrument into a vector-autoregressive model of the UK economy, an adverse Brexit surprise lowers GDP growth while raising CPI inflation. We provide evidence that the Bank of England fended off a worse economic contraction.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 103516 |
| Pages (from-to) | 103516 |
| Number of pages | 18 |
| Journal | Journal of Monetary Economics |
| Volume | 142 |
| Publication status | Published - Mar 2024 |
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This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
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SDG 17 Partnerships for the Goals
Fields of science
- 303010 Health economics
- 502 Economics
- 502002 Labour economics
- 502009 Corporate finance
- 502021 Microeconomics
- 502042 Environmental economics
- 502047 Economic theory
- 504014 Gender studies
- 507016 Regional economy
- 405002 Agricultural economics
- 502001 Labour market policy
- 502003 Foreign trade
- 502010 Public finance
- 502012 Industrial management
- 502013 Industrial economics
- 502018 Macroeconomics
- 502020 Market research
- 502025 Econometrics
- 502027 Political economy
- 502039 Structural policy
- 502046 Economic policy
- 506004 European integration
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