System-induced transition inertia in the transformation of the German heating and housing sector

Despite ripe technological knowledge on how to decarbonise economic reproduction, transition policy remains to be ineffective in limiting emission. This includes a transition in the production of and demand for domestic heating. In Germany, domestic heating warrants nearly third of its primary energy yet efforts to transform it remain stalled due to a controversial media campaign around the reform of the Buildings Energy Act (Gebäudeenergiegesetz) in 2023, slow modernisation rates in the last years and administrative rollbacks in the policy process. Using Germany as a case, this study explores the economic, administrative and individual hurdles within the heating and housing sector to uncover how future policy can overcome what we coin system-induced transition inertia. For this, the sociotechnical imaginaries of 23 stakeholders were captured in semi-structured interviews. Findings from this study reveal an increased focus on the socio-economic side of the transition is needed as technological policy experiences a stalemate between economic expectations and long-term execution. We propose this inertia could be addressed through a set of outlined policy recommendations that approach energy policy from a systemic perspective.