System-induced transition inertia in the transformation of the German heating and housing sector

Despite ripe technological knowledge on how to decarbonise economies, transition policy remains ineffective in limiting emissions. This includes a transition in the production of and demand for domestic heating. In Germany, domestic heating consumes nearly third of its primary energy, yet the execution of the Buildings Energy Act (dt. Gebäudeenergiegesetz) aimed at decarbonising the sector remain stalled. Slow modernisation rates in the last years, controversial media campaigns and administrative rollbacks in the policy process are evidence of this latency. Using Germany as a case, this study applies a habermasian understanding of systemic integration of the economy and the adminstrative state to uncover how future policy can overcome what we coin “system-induced transition inertia”. For this, the sociotechnical expectations of 23 practitioners of the heating and housing transition were captured in semi-structured interviews. Findings from this study add to the literature on energy transitions and reveal that an increased focus on the socio-economic side of the transition is needed as technological policies experience a stalemate between economic expectations and long-term execution in administrations. We propose this inertia could be addressed through a set of outlined policy recommendations that approach energy policy from a systemic perspective.