Abstract
We use a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to study the German natural gas market and investigate the impact of the 2022 Russian supply stop on the German economy. Combining conventional and narrative sign restrictions, we find that gas supply and demand shocks have large and persistent price effects, while output effects tend to be moderate. The 2022 natural gas price spike was driven by adverse supply shocks and positive storage demand shocks, as Germany filled its inventories before the winter. Counterfactual simulations of an embargo on natural gas imports from Russia indicate similar positive price and negative output effects compared with what we observe in the data.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 1282-1300 |
| Number of pages | 19 |
| Journal | Journal of Applied Econometrics |
| Volume | 39 |
| Issue number | 7 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 01 Nov 2024 |
Fields of science
- 303010 Health economics
- 502 Economics
- 502002 Labour economics
- 502009 Corporate finance
- 502021 Microeconomics
- 502042 Environmental economics
- 502047 Economic theory
- 504014 Gender studies
- 507016 Regional economy
- 405002 Agricultural economics
- 502001 Labour market policy
- 502003 Foreign trade
- 502010 Public finance
- 502012 Industrial management
- 502013 Industrial economics
- 502018 Macroeconomics
- 502020 Market research
- 502025 Econometrics
- 502027 Political economy
- 502039 Structural policy
- 502046 Economic policy
- 506004 European integration
JKU Focus areas
- Sustainable Development: Responsible Technologies and Management