“We Need Long-Term Thinking, Predictability, and Reliability”: Imagined Futures of the German Heating and Housing Transition

This article aims to ascertain if prevailing temporal imaginaries of capitalism are susceptible to change throughout sustainability transitions. As traditional economic institutions and practices face challenges under the polycrisis, so too may imagined futures (IFs). This research examines IFs of the German heating and housing transition (Wärmewende) in the context of the 2023 amendment of the German Building Energy Act (Gebäudeenergiegesetz, GEG). Twenty-three expert interviews with institutional stakeholders impacted by and integral to the heating transition and the GEG amendment were performed and assessed qualitatively. The approach concentrated on reconstructing the contingency of, topics of and agency upon IFs. The findings indicate that futures of housing and heating in Germany are seen as largely stable, namely as resistant to significant upheavals and subject to modification via political decisions. Amid a ‘heated’ amendment process, issues emerge not from the future but from a tumultuous present. Practitioners of the heating transition exhibit little futures literacy, resulting in a lack of noticeable capability to use the future to attain sustainability objectives or disrupt the Status Quo. Moreover, they emphasize a pragmatic strategy of incremental measures grounded on established routines. Far-reaching transformations in heating and housing based on bold visions are largely absent. The research shows that the German heating transition is set to unfold along ‘incumbent futures’, perpetuating current patterns of technological innovation driven by market incentives and technocratic governance.