A Heuristic Technique for Project Time Analysis in Conditions with High Uncertainty

Project completion time evaluation under uncertainty is still a problem in project management. It is most acute in the areas of large uncertainty in activity estimations and fast changing environment, where only stochastic approaches are possible. We propose an analytical technique for managers that produces a worst case approximation of the project end time. This is an operationally simple heuristic that needs only one network traverse, with realistic model and assumptions, simple mathematical calculations and probability distribution types. The technique considers merge event bias that causes a delay in the stochastic project network. Additionally, end time of all activities and likely critical activities are found. To show the application of the technique, we analyzed time of a real construction project and obtained good accuracy